According to @lookonchain, the trader’s largest loss was $1.58M on the Polymarket Liverpool to win contract after buying YES at $0.66, highlighting a misread of implied probability, source: @lookonchain on X, Jan 5, 2026. The account adds that paying $0.66 for YES means you believe the true win probability exceeds 66%, and treating Polymarket like binary sports betting rather than probability trading drove most of the losses, source: @lookonchain on X, Jan 5, 2026.